Somebody call up Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook (ooh, Charlie had this one as Likely Democratic): they need to adjust their Democratic DOOMWatch lists again.

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry to retire

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision.

Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.

Speculation was rampant after his comments a couple of days ago; note that politicians routinely deny that they’re going to retire until they actually do.  Presumably, there’s always the hope of a convenient asteroid strike or something as a game-changer.  It’s a shame, in its way: we were all going to really enjoy watching Berry lose that race. As the video at the link shows, the man was seriously off of his game.  When you can’t even remember your own farm subsidy shenanigans…

Moe Lane

PS: It looks more or less like Rick Crawford for AR-01, on the GOP side.  Check him out.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

The usual ‘more time with his family‘ bit, and nothing about a 17 point deficit in the polls. Then again, that’s not too surprising - although it’d be great if just once one of these guys said “I’m not going to throw away ten months of my life on an election that I’m just going to lose anyway?”  Admittedly, if Snyder had the nerve to do that he might not have fled the upcoming race.

Moving along, Charlie Cook had this at Democratic Toss-Up, and emphasis on ‘had.’ If I had to guess, I’d expect at least ‘Leans Republican’ by the next update.  The three Republicans that I know of so far for this race are Tim Griffin, Scott Wallace, and David Meeks.  Check them out.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

And I assure you, I have a vivid imagination.

State of Washington Department of Corrections has lost an Arkansas felon. Sean Robinson, writing at the Tacoma News Tribune, fills us in on the details.

He’s William T. Forbes, one of 14 Arkansas parolees Washington is required to supervise under the terms of an interstate agreement.

Forbes is a fugitive – the only wayward parolee in the Arkansas group. His whereabouts are unknown; last known address in Moses Lake. An active warrant, valid anywhere in the country, calls for his arrest.

The Arkansas offenders, including Forbes, represent a sliver of the total; Washington supervises 2,393 out-of-state offenders, according to records from the state Department of Corrections.

It’s unclear how many of those offenders have violated the terms of their parole or absconded from supervision. The News Tribune recently requested a state-by-state breakdown from the Department of Corrections, with particular emphasis on Arkansas.

I especially love this part:

The numbers also reveal an apparent trade deficit. Washington’s exported offenders number 1,046 – less than half as many as the 2,393 the state received from elsewhere.

Corrections officials cite multiple reasons for the disparity.

“Offenders – like a lot of people across the country – are attracted to Washington’s quality of life,” said DOC spokeswoman Maria Peterson.

Other factors revolve around differences in state corrections law, officials say. Washington’s community supervision system differs from other states’, many of which use more traditional parole and probation systems. Some Washington offenders are from Washington originally, and have convictions here as well as elsewhere, Peterson said. She added that the interstate agreements governing offender supervision are not designed to create a 1-to-1 ratio among all states.

Right…our “community supervision system” differs from other states. I wonder if that isn’t some sort of code for “we just sort of shoo them out the door and hope they report in once in a while.”

Meanwhile, Governor Gregoire’s moratorium on accepting parolees from Arkansas is still in effect; smoke and mirrors of little substance that does little to protect the public, designed primarily to deflect attention away from her own abysmal record on public safety.

More on this subject:

• Gregoire’s Political Posturing Over Lakewood Shootings
• Christine Gregoire. Glass House. Throwing Stones
• The Buck Doesn’t Stop Here

Cross posted at It’s Only Words.