Watching the Florida Republican primary from afar has been a fascinating exercise. The sudden fall of Charlie Crist  - from being a seemingly unbeatable candidate with 5 statewide races under his belt and an endless Rolodex of high-dollar donors to political trainwreck - has been noted, well, everywhere, as has the emergence of new Republican rockstar Marco Rubio.

The stars have rarely aligned so well for a candidate (though Marco Rubio’s hard work at the grass roots, his aggressive social networking strategy and his compelling personal narrative have certainly helped) and the Republican primary situation in Florida was literally not imaginable a year ago, it looks more and more inevitable that the long run of Charlie Crist is nearly over. How very different from 2006: Florida looked like another state moving from Red to Purple To Blue.

We were in a post-partisan era, remember?  The future of the GOP was guys like Charlie Crist: moderate, soft around the edges and nice to a fault.  The era of ideology was behind us. Charlie was hailed as a future Vice Presidential pick…maybe even a Presidential contender in 2016.

So what happened?

Beyond the moment of the famous hug, Charlie Crist underestimated the permanent symbolic damage backing the Obama stimulus package would do.  In an age where empowered conservatives dominate the social networks that define the poltical landscape more completely than the friendly press he’s always enjoyed, he was blind and deaf to the damage he caused.  He’s rarely been held accountable before either in a campaign or in government, and now he faces angry Republicans, active Tea Party voters and independents for whom the Obama stimulus is a unmitigated failure…and on Twitter, Facebook, Youtube and blogs, they’re holding him responsible for his betrayal of conservative principles.

More baffling, Crist keeps digging in deeper, defending his decision to back the stimulus. These decisions tell me that his mindset is stuck in 2006, when the conventional wisdom predicted that Republican leaders would come from the John McCain-Lindsey Graham wing of the party and that robust conservatism was a thing of the past.

But 2010 is the year where fiscal conservatism made a comeback, and Republican voters are looking for someone to go to Washington and tell Barack Obama and the Democrats, “Enough!” We saw it in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts, and I think we’re seeing it again in Florida more clearly than in any other primary.

One observer said that because Charlie Crist could win elections in “purple” Florida that GOP voters looked the other way when it came to Crist.  But recent polls show both Crist and Rubio beat Democrat Kendrick Meek.  So if the growing conservative movement (and Republican and independent voters) can have both - ideological strength and a win in the general election - why not go with the one they love?  There’s no need for the bait-and-switch of putting out a nice-guy moderate: the GOP base and Florida independents are leaning strongly to the right this cycle, and Marco fits the bill perfectly.

Charlie has always grabbed and run on a popular issue: crime in the 1990s, education in the 2000s, climate change in 2006 and seemed to be setting himself up as the “I can work with Barack” candidate for 2010…until Obama’s poll numbers came crashing to earth and took Charlie with them.

Conservative ideological intensity — particularly on the fiscal side — is back in style, and there is no more powerful symbol of that this year than whether or not you oppose the Obama agenda.  Crist’s explicit endorsement of one of the three major legs of the Obama agenda - and his initial reluctance to talk straight on his position on health care — cemented his image with Republican voters. Marco Rubio, a man who from the beginning has stuck with his message of fiscal discipline and real conservative principals was the obvious, inevitable counterweight.

A political hermaphrodite, Crist now wants to be a born-again beacon of conservative purity. His campaign is desperate and attacking wildly…nitpicking Rubio’s American Express statements when he should have been talking opposition to Obama. The Governor clearly has very few ideas left and he’s going to throw everything at the wall he can. Will it damage Marco?  Yes, because negatives hurt, especially when echoed by some plainly pro-Crist voices in the Florida media.  Are they enough for Crist to win a primary? Almost certainly not.

No matter how many times he say’s he’s a strong conservative, the current political climate and that iconic picture have permanently and profoundly locked in his image with conservatives. He’s fighting the battle that won’t help the Republican Party or the conservative cause.  The conservatives are gone, and every poll proves it. And conservatives are the ones who come out on Primary Day. An independent campaign will fail, fast and hard as Crist burns through his money with no hope of replacing it. Every dollar spent on Charlie Crist is a dollar to Meek.

Charlie Crist was always a great campaigner, but never a great leader. He can’t understand why there’s no U-turn on the road he took, but unless he decides soon to leave the race with some dignity, what reputation he has left will be squandered as a man who didn’t realize that his time in political life had come…and gone.

The evolving land purchase has not been pretty to watch from the start. It was negotiated in private with key players such as the federal government shut out. There are legitimate questions about the validity of the property appraisals, which appear to have overvalued the land as property values were declining. Then there is the murky role of U.S. Sen. George LeMieux. He was Crist’s chief of staff when the deal was hatched and worked for U.S. Sugar’s law firm both before and after his time in Tallahassee. LeMieux claims he recused himself from working on the deal as the governor’s chief of staff, but it all looks too cozy from the outside.

In the broader picture, it is galling that taxpayers are both subsidizing an industry that helped imperil the Everglades and now paying for the restoration. Without indefensible taxpayer price supports mandated by Congress, U.S. Sugar and its competitors would be in much weaker negotiating positions if they existed at all.

Standing amid the marshes at the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge in June 2008, Mr. Crist said, “I can envision no better gift to the Everglades, the people of Florida and the people of America — as well as our planet — than to place in public ownership this missing link that represents the key to true restoration.”

Nearly two years later, the governor’s ambitious plan to reclaim the river of grass, as the famed wetlands are known, is instead on track to rescue the fortunes of United States Sugar.

The proposal was downsized only five months after it was announced. By April 2009, amid the deepening recession, the state said it could afford to purchase only 72,800 acres of United States Sugar’s land, for $536 million. The company would stay in business and the state would retain the option of buying the remaining 107,000 acres at a future date.

Should this transaction fail, U.S. Sugar Corp. could auction its land holdings to other willing buyers who are already pushing dangerous plans to build landfills, rock mines and massive commercial developments in the middle of the Everglades.

Imagine how difficult and expensive the state’s job of acquiring land for restoration in those circumstances would be and what irreversible abuses to the land could be perpetuated. No one who is truly concerned about a healthy Everglades and the economic benefits it provides to diverse industries such as agriculture, tourism, fishing, and boating would want to see that happen.

This historic land acquisition is an opportunity for us all. It requires vision — something that was woefully lacking before Crist suggested this approach to Everglades restoration.

We applaud Crist and U.S. Sugar for negotiating a creative, flexible and more-affordable solution to improving our water quality, saving the Everglades and preserving the jobs that are dependent on its survival. Kirk Fordham is CEO of the Everglades Foundation in Palmetto Bay.

Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both have ties to Florida Crystals – the big competitor to U.S. Sugar which opposes the land preservation deal.

I, on the other hand, want to honor god’s work, restore this to its natural position, restore the natural flow of the Florida Everglades. This may be the only time we have an opportunity to do this, Greta. And our administration has been very focused on it just the way Teddy Roosevelt would have been. It’s the right thing to do and we’ll get it done.

Re-posted from truthupfront.blogspot.com

Moe got up the new television ad. We got it first.

We also got the first interview of Marco Rubio on the new ad. I just got off the phone with him.

The ad is the perfect example of how to do a contrast ad. It is not overtly negative, but it definitely shows real contrasts. Allegedly, Charlie Crist is going to go up hard this coming week with advertising. Rubio beating him to the punch with a positive contrast will probably have to send Crist scrambling.

When I asked Rubio about why he did this as his first ad he said, “This frames what the election is about. Charlie Crist seems to be obsessed with my back, but I’m worried about the trillions of dollars of debt we’re putting on our children’s backs. That’s what worries me.”

“He’s not going to stand up to Barack Obama. I will. Everything in my record shows that I will. Nothing in his record suggests he will.”

I deviated from talking about the ad to ask him about one concern being raised these days. Marco Rubio is becoming a conservative rockstar and everyone wants a piece of him. How exactly is he staying grounded. He said, “Real life keeps me grounded. Yesterday I had to go to the grocery shopping and took out the trash. Today I had to drop my kids off at school. Real life keeps me grounded.”

Lastly, I asked him about the credit card controversy. He said Crist is focused on Marco’s haircuts and Marco is focused on winning and going to Washington to help the country. Marco pointed out that he paid those credit card bills, the state party did not. He said, “It is kind of hypocritical for Charlie to attack me on my credit card purchases when Charlie’s chairman pillaged the party. I think we’re on the right track with new leadership there.”

And Florida is on the right track with Marco Rubio. Let’s send him some coin so he can keep this ad up.

Last night on Fox, Charlie Crist said Marco Rubio’s ~$100.00 bill at a Florida salon could have been for back waxing.

I don’t know if he was trying to make a racial statement, which would be keeping with what his campaign has done all along in trying to make Marco Rubio as hispanic as possible, or if he was gay baiting. I do know straight men know very little, if anything, about back waxing, which makes me wonder why that would come off the top of Charlie Crist’s head.

In any event, it was a ridiculous thing to say. His campaign is free falling in the polling. The only thing he has with which to attack Marco Rubio is a credit card statement Crist’s minions improperly took from the Florida GOP’s headquarters.

So let’s help Charlie out.

Here is some back wax at Amazon.com. Charlie Crist’s address is:

Office of Governor Charlie Crist
State of Florida
The Capitol
400 S. Monroe St.
Tallahassee, FL 32399-0001
(850) 488-7146

Let’s send Charlie some back wax. And if he tries to use the stuff, he’ll at least experience the same pain the voters have been experiencing for the last four years. Full disclosure: this goes to RedState’s Amazon.com store, so we’ll get something for every one you send. But it doesn’t affect your price.

At a time the GOP is pushing the Democrats to scrap their health care plan and start over — a view shared by the majority of Americans — Charlie Crist says he’d keep the Democrats’ plan. Mind you, he can’t think of a part worth saving, but he says he’d keep it anyway and work to “improve” it.

Marco Rubio promptly sent out a press release on this saying:

“Once again, Charlie Crist has shown why Floridians can’t trust him to go to Washington and stand up to the misguided agenda of President Obama and Congressional Democrats. At a time when Americans are pushing back against the government takeover of health care and calling for a complete reset to this flawed bill, Charlie Crist says he would not scrap it. Even more problematic, he claims he would approach health care in the same way he handled the stimulus. Floridians know all too well the soaring debt and expansion of government that resulted from that misguided approach.

“Make no mistake, the current health care proposal is a deeply flawed plan that should be scrapped entirely in favor of a truly bipartisan approach that won’t sacrifice the things that have made our health system the best in the world.”

Good on Marco.

The speculation is building that Charlie Crist is going to leave the GOP.

Two highly placed and independent sources, speaking strictly on background, tell me that Gov. Charlie Crist is preparing to leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in the race for the U.S. Senate.

With Crist trailing Marco Rubio by 18 points in the latest polls, the Crist campaign has been in panic mode, launching attack after attack on the conservative Rubio.

Yesterday, the attacks reached a crescendo with the Crist campaign, and/or his disgraced Republican Party of Florida thug bootlickers, leaking Rubio’s credit card expenses from his time as speaker of the Florida House.

According to published reports, the former RPOF chair, the bovine bully-boy buffoon Jim Greer, spent more in a month than Rubio did in his entire two years as state House speaker. If all the Crist campaign has on Rubio is $53.49 at Winn-Dixie in Miami for “food” and a couple of plane tickets for his wife, then it’s game, set and match, as far as the Republican primary for Senate is concerned.

Here’s what will happen if Charlie Crist leaves the GOP. The DC-GOP Establishment crowd will attack RedState, Jim DeMint, and Marco Rubio for shrinking the GOP. Instead of pointing out that moderate Republicans are sore loser who don’t play well with conservatives, conservatives will be attacked for chasing Crist out of the party.

Crist might like a three-way primary with Meeks and Rubio, but he still has no path to victory. In fact, he’ll be wrestling with Meeks over the same voter pool as independents drift right toward Rubio.

There is growing speculation that Charlie Crist is going to run as a independent candidate in Florida as he continues sinking in the polls. Just a few weeks ago, Crist and Vice President Biden were caught having a private meal together in Miami. In addition, Crist has returned to embracing the Obama stimulus fraud. Either he’s going Democrat or he’s going independent.

Before he goes, however, Crist is determined to do everything possible to run a scorched earth campaign against Marco Rubio. The latest is beyond the pale. Crist has taken the private credit card records of the Republican Party of Florida and leaked them to the press.

The only records leaked, of course, were those of Marco Rubio. As the Speaker of the House in Florida, Rubio had a credit card with the Florida GOP. He used it to help get Republicans elected, though some of the charges were personal. Rubio reimbursed the Florida GOP for the personal expenses.

That hasn’t stopped Charlie Crist from misappropriating the records to smear Rubio. But for perspective, Charlie Crist’s hand picked Director of the GOP in Florida charged in one month what Rubio charged in two years.

Make a donation to Marco Rubio right now and teach Charlie Crist that the more he tries to smear Rubio, the more Rubio’s war chest will grow to combat the smears.

Remember, the NRSC threw its weight behind Crist because he was ahead in the polls and the NRSC did not want to have to spend a bunch of money. If Crist runs a scorched earth policy against Rubio, throwing every possible smear and lie at Rubio, the NRSC is going to have different arithmetic in Florida.

More details here.

Rasmussen has the political earthquake out today. Charlie Crist’s team was unavailable for comment as they were in the bathroom collectively unable to contain themselves.

Boom.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters in the state finds Rubio leading Crist 49% to 37%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and 11% are undecided.
The new numbers mark a stunning turnaround. Crist was the strong favorite when he first announced for the Senate seat, and Rubio was viewed as a long-shot challenger.

But folks, we cannot afford to get complacent. We can finish off Charlie Crist now. Pledge what you can to the Marco Rubio money bomb. Let’s ensure he is in a financial position to finish off Charlie Crist and clinch the Republican nomination.

Maybe this is why the media is reporting Charlie Crist had beakfast in Miami with Joe Biden the other day. Perhaps Crist is planning on jumping ship or taking a President appointment to lead up the relief effort to Haiti.

Just when you think Charlie Crist’s no good, very bad, awful several weeks has finished bottoming out and is prepared to rebound, the bottom falls out and he sinks even further.

Today, Crist is proclaiming himself a “McCain Republican”, stealing a talking point from Scott Brown in Massachusetts. I’ve got news for Charlie Crist — if we’re lucky, John McCain is going to get beaten by a conservative this year, just like Crist. And does he really want to further align himself with a man whose wife is now campaigning against Christians in Arizona and California, calling them “haters”?

Note that the quote originally circulated that Crist had called himself a “DeMint Republican.” When I asked Senator DeMint about that, he said, “That’s nice if the governor said that, but I’m a Marco Rubio Republican.”

If that’s not enough, consider Scott Rothstein, Charlie Crist’s number one fundraiser and donor, pled guilty today to federal charges connected to a multi-billion Ponzi scheme. Rothstein, in true Crist-supporter fashion, also supported Democrat Alex Sink for Governor.

The Miami Herald reported that Crist supporters themselves were alleging that Rothstein’s bundling could account anywhere from $500,000 to more than $1 million in Crist Campaign contributions.

After initially dragging his feet, under intense questioning from his editorial board buddies, Crist decided he would give back $76,250 from 35 employees of Rothstein’s firm. 

But an AP story this week said Crist only gave back $9,600.00. So the question is: is Charlie Crist going to follow through on his promise, is his fundraising total this quarter inflated, and is $76,000.00 really all the dirty Rothstein money?

Also, with Rothstein pleading guilty, there’s little doubt he cut a deal and will be singning like a canary.

Charlie Crist just keeps sinking lower and lower.

[UPDATED:] First Kos and now other liberal pundits are speculating that Charlie Crist should/might switch parties to run as a Democrat. I really don’t see that happening. I still suspect Crist is going to drop out. Frankly, Barack Obama should name him head of the American-Haitian Relief Effort. As Governor of Florida, he does have a ton of executive experience in dealing with natural disaster coordination. That skill set does not translate to the Senate, but would work well as an executive level appointee into the federal government while helping Obama’s “favorite Republican” save face.